As Sam Sees It

The most exciting event in sports is currently under way. The NCAA Championship Basketball Tournament began play last week and will continue until a champion is crowned. The field was expanded by one to 65 teams this season with the addition of a "pigtail" game between the two lowest rated teams involved.

The single elimination tournament is unforgiving. There are some years in which the consensus best team manages to win the six straight games necessary to claim the much coveted championship crown. More often, another almost as good (or maybe better but less recognized) team wins all of its games while the favorite has an "off" night at the wrong time and against the wrong opponent.

"Cinderellas" do make their appearances and many such interlopers try on the glass slipper and threaten to make it fit. The 1996 Arizona Wildcats were such a team. Lute Olson's 'Cats finished fifth in the PAC-10 Conference and nearly fell victim to upsets in the first two rounds. Then they went on a role and defeated three number one seeds to claim the title.

There are very few basketball experts who would argue that Kansas was not the best team in college basketball that year, but they were not the best the night they played the Arizona Wildcats. North Carolina and Kentucky were both top seeds from their regions as well, but they were no match for the Wildcats by the time they met on the court. That was truly a team of destiny.

An even more unlikely champion was the Villanova Wildcat team that played the perfect game in the finals of one of the last tournaments before the shot clock became a fixture in college basketball. Those Wildcats upset a Georgetown Hoya team that had defeated them handily in all four previous meetings between the two teams.

The best teams win more often than not, and you can go broke trying to pick the upsets. On the other hand, the fact is that picking any one team against the field is almost as risky, no matter how much better they look on paper. The fact that the best team doesn't always win and that they only have to stumble once is what makes this tournament such a great event.

There have been just enough games played already that my predictions could include teams that have already been eliminated. Nevertheless, here are my predictions for the 2001 tournament. Arizona will win its second championship for Lute Olson and in memory of his late wife Bobbie. Duke, most people's favorite, will finish second. The other Final Four members will be Michigan State and Kansas.

This is not a prediction, but a guarantee. If you take advantage of modern technology and watch all of those games, you will see plenty of great, great basketball. This tournament will always deliver on that promise. At least, it always has so far.

Would I like to see any changes? Just one. Let's expand it another week and let every team in NCAA Division I have its shot. All that would mean is about two more rounds of play and a little more work for the committee doing the seeding.

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